Saturday, May 26, 2007
Venture-backed Companies Line up their IPOs
Venture-backed technology IPOs came back in vogue in the latter half of 2006 and produced good market returns (difference in the first-day closing and the offering price,) signaling that the public is showing more appetite for technology companies than before. As a group, technology IPOs posted a very impressive 37% average return from the offer price. Notable tech IPOs this year include Mellanox (Infiniband interconnect, rev. $44M,) Clearwire (WiMax network, rev. $95M,) Sourcefire (network protection, revenue $41M,) Salary.com (rev. $17M,) BigBand Networks (video network, rev. $140M,) Glu Mobile (games for handsets, rev. $39M,) Comverge (power management, rev. $24M,) EnerNOC (power response management, rev. $23M,) and Aruba Networks (enterprise wireless, rev. $73M.)
Revival of the Capital Markets: The capital markets have been on a bullish streak. The Dow Jones index surpassed its previous peak reached in 2000 late last year while S&P 500 is almost back to its closing record of 1,527 of March 2000. But the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks and lost the most of any major index in the bear market, would have to nearly double to return to its old record of 5,048 of March 2000 - a sign that the technology investors are optimistic and rational, not overzealous and speculative.
The IPO market experienced the best first quarter since 2000 in terms of volume and proceeds. Overall, IPO offer amounts by venture-backed companies dropped to about $2B in 2002 and then slowly climbed back to $5.2B last year. We expect that this year will be a particularly strong year, easily outpacing the amount raised last year. The total number of Nasdaq IPOs for the first quarter, 42, was the most since the same period seven years ago.
Healthcare and IT: 2006 was a good year for the healthcare sector. However, most of these listings were priced below their ranges. Technology and telecom companies accounted for about 22% of the IPOs and produced good market returns. Riverbed Technologies, a WAN optimization vendor, was the top performing IPO, producing 215% return. Other solid performers included Ominture (web analytics,) Isilon (clustered storage systems,) Techwell (fabless IC designer,) and Synchronoss (VoIP software.)
Alternative Energy IPOs: Solar Shines
As the buzz surrounding solar investments peaked, a quartet of solar power products manufacturers raised $822 million in proceeds. The notables included Canadian Solar (+35%), Trina Solar (+2%) and Solarfun Power (-20%) that pitched China-based operations. First Solar (+39%) is very active in Germany, the second largest solar market in the world.
While Ethanol Runs Out of Fuel: Used as a fuel additive since the 1930’s, ethanol’s recent rise to prominence has been fueled by a favorable regulatory environment and the phase-out of competing fuel additive MTBE. While market conditions appeared ripe, investors were concerned about long-term viability. After strong initial trading, VeraSun and Aventine both plummeted amid concerns over narrowing ethanol spreads. Similar concerns led Hawkeye Holdings to pull its planned IPO in November and forced U.S. BioEnergy to price its offering at a -13% discount, according to IPOHome.
VC Firms optimistic: The venture firms in Boston and Silicon Valley have a clear sense that this is a very viable market for technology companies. 2007 should be a big year for venture-funded tech companies. I expect VC-backed technology and internet-based companies to continue their IPO revival in 2007 as many companies that got off the ground in the aftermath of the tech meltdown are now maturing. Proposed changes loosening the burden of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) should also entice more technology IPOs where such costs can take a large bite out of their profit margins before their business models reach full scale. We do see segments of the technology sector strengthening their presence in the IPO pipeline on a sustained basis. These include cleantech, mobility, and multimedia applications and infrastructure.
How do you view the future of venture-backed technology companies in the U.S.?
Friday, May 25, 2007
Necessity, the mother of invention?
Today, Sony announced a breakthrough in TV technology, with a working model of a flat-screen, thin full-color screen that bends like a piece of paper! It has been reported that Sony is yet to decide how it will commercialize this innovation. A wearable TV-fabric and wrist-wrap TV are amongst some early application ideas being bounced about. One thing can be certain, once Sony invents a need, the anticipated customer demand will accelerate the creation of complementing products and programming to piggy back on this technology.
For all the technical innovation in broadcasting technology supported by FCC mandates on High Definition transmission, the form factor of current display unit limits where and how one can enjoy the medium and the message. Plasma TVs are bulky and fragile, while LCDs have viewing angle limitations. We end up getting these newer generation TV's and hosting them in a 19th century fashion, rooted to a spot around which we congregate; rather than having the flexibility of letting the TV follow us to where we want to 'enjoy' it.
Ideal application? Thin-screen large TVs that weigh no more than 5 pounds, wall mountable on simple picture-frame mounts, with user-swappable designer frames with fully-integrated HD antennas, wireless connectivity with peripheral AV equipment and powered by rechargeable batteries that can be swapped out. Further, imagine if TV's became as portable as laptops and reach the level of personalization that we are used to with computing technology. We might take to switching TV sets out as fast as we switch the channels on the flipper!
That, indeed, would be a need invented.
Of course, when you head over to TiECON East 2007, you will get to hear about The War for the Digital Home with Rod Randall (Partner, Vesbridge Partners), Nandhu Nandhakumar (SVP, LG Electronics), Jeff Binder (Senior Director, Motorola), Gunjan Bhow (VP, Marketing & Product Mgt, Actiontec Electronics), Ofer Vilenski (CEO, Jung Software) and Brian Mahony (VP, Marketing, Espial) sharing their thoughts on Saturday June 16th.
The conference starts at 6 PM on Thursday, June 14 at the Hynes Convention Center with Reed Hunt, Intel Board Member / Former FCC Chairman / Author kicking off the event.
Can you afford to miss this and spend the next 365 days until the next TiECON fretting over it?
sai at obviousideas dot com
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Vroooomm – are we Ready for the Electric Muscle Car ?
Well that would not be that earth shattering if it weren’t for the fact that this motorbike was running on electricity. Electricity off of 990 Li-ion cells from A123 Systems delivering over 350 HP !! According to KillaCycle’s website, they can recharge the 161 pounds of batteries in a few minutes between runs using less than 10 cents of electricity.
Well you won’t see the KillaCycle but you do have a chance to hear David Vieau, CEO of A123 Systems speak at TIECON on June 15th and tell you all about where the next generation of battery technology, that powers these vehicles, is going.
Fast electric vehicles are not just for extreme hobbyists. The Tesla, unveiled earlier this year, promises to bring a high end, high performance electric vehicle to market in the next year. With a price tag north of 90,000 dollars, they have sold over 350 cars even before the first production model hits the streets. And speaking of hitting the streets, this baby can go from 0 to 60 in 4 seconds flat.
And if that was not enough, how about a battle of the supercars ! Here is a prototype electric car, the X-1 from Wrightspeed that takes on a Ferrari and a Porsche and leaves them in the dust.
If speed is what turns you on, there is even a site for Drag racing Electrics - http://nedra.com/ You can see more of these electric rockets there.
If you want to find out what’s next with state of the art energy and electric technology, then TIECON EAST in Boston is the place to be. Hope we see you there.
Raj Melville
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Innovate or Imitate...Fame or Fortune?
Innovation drives our industry, attracts the best talent, attracts VC money, and wins fame for its leaders. Innovation leaders burst onto the scene, win early market leadership, but sometimes can't sustain the pace. Why do "fast followers" often jump in later and make fortunes? Is management responsible for the success or failure?
I have been on the leading edge, sometimes bleeding edge, of technology for most of my career. I have been fortunate to be part of start-up teams that have created "first-of-its-kind" innovations at companies like Forte Software, AltaVista, Napster, Bowstreet, and Groove Networks. All of these companies were first in their field, yet few of them realized the financial rewards one would expect. Is it all timing and luck? I don't think so.
Before exploring the reasons for success or failure lets review a list of innovation leaders and fast followers.
AltaVista -> Google
Napster -> iTunes
VisiCalc -> Lotus 123 -> Excel
Word Perfect -> Word
Netscape -> Internet Explorer
Apple Newton -> Palm Pilot -> Blackberry
IBM PC -> Compaq -> Dell
Double Click -> Google Ad Sense
Ofoto -> Photobucket
Compuserve -> AOL -> @Home -> Comcast & Verizon
All of these companies were innovation leaders and market leaders. Yet, they were eclipsed by fast followers, in some cases multiple times, who imitated their innovation. My belief is that the technology was outstanding...the management was not.
Clayton Christensen wrote The Innovators Dilemma which I reviewed in an earlier post. The basic premise of the book is that management optimizes around protecting their existing business and fails to recognize and react to disruptive threats. However, the examples in Christensen's book play out over 10 or 20 years. The above examples played out in 5 or less years. Are the same factors at work here? Lets take a look.
AltaVista was the first search engine and the clear technology leader. The management at DEC didn't understand what they had and didn't invest the necessary resources to make it a business success. Later Compaq and CMGI squandered the search opportunity and tried to imitate Yahoo, Excite, Lycos, and AOL in the consumer portal game. Big mistake. Fault management.
Napster was the first P2P file sharing application to bring together search, FTP, and Instant Messaging. Brilliant technical synergy. There are lots of reasons for failure here, mostly management decisions and unfortunate timing.
VisiCalc was the first spreadsheet, invented by Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston. I know Dan fairly well but have never asked him why he thinks VisiCalc fell behind and Excel moved ahead. This topic deserves its own post. My memory is that VisiCalc was slow to adopt the DOS platform. Lotus 123 moved ahead on DOS and achieved market leadership, but failed to jump onto the Windows platform fast enough. Excel did make the move and the rest is history.
IBM created the PC revolution and was the early leader. Compaq was a fast follower focusing on "transportable" PCs and won huge market share. Dell came in later and trounced them all with a better business model.
Compuserve was the first dial-up service provider. Together with Prodigy they dominated the market. Later AOL entered the game with superior marketing and original content. AOL absolutely dominated in the 80's and early 90's. Then @Home created the cable Internet market and took the early lead. It wasn't long before Verizon, Comcast, and other cable providers owned the broadband market. AOL never really made the transition from dial-up to broadband.
In nearly every case the early innovators were eclipsed by fast followers. Why did the fast followers take over market share leadership?
Better business model (Google, Ad Sense, Dell)
Better market position (Word, Excel, Comcast, Verizon)
Better timing (iTunes, Flickr)
Better platform choices (Blackberry, Word, Excel)
Better management (all the fast followers)
It is overly simplistic to pin the success or failure of these innovators on one factor. There were a combination of factors at work. But in most cases the problem was not inferior technology, it was inferior management decisions.
So, were these early innovators led by technical visionaries who were not good managers? Will the imitators and "fast followers" suffer the same fate and be overtaken by new fast followers?
The list of "fast followers" above are more than just imitators. They have continued to innovate far beyond the original idea or feature set and have maintained market leadership. If you look closely at these companies they have a mix of technical visionaries and business management leaders. It takes a different set of skills to start a company than it does to sustain a company. This balance of skills, I think, is the key to sustained market leadership.
Cisco is an example of an early innovator that kept their market leadership position over time. Their technical founders brought in professional managers to take them to the next level.
There is a rare breed of technical visionaries who are also great business leaders. Bill Gates, Gordon Moore, Larry Ellison, and Scott McNealy are examples. They are truly extraordinary and rare. However, I suspect that each of them has a strong business management team behind them. Bill Gates has Steve Ballmer. Larry Ellison had Ray Lane. The early innovators who failed did not have the business leadership necessary to sustain them.
Lessons for entrepreneurs;
- Never stop innovating
- Build a well rounded management team early
- Value sales and marketing talent as much as technical talent
- React quickly to disruptive technologies or business models
- Don't be too proud to imitate when it makes sense
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Everybody's Going Green
Now Rupert Murdoch has always been known to be a shrewd businessman and Wal-Mart has made cost cutting its mantra. Although altruism and publicity might have played some part in these announcements, you can be sure that cold hard economics was what was driving these decisions. Increasingly businesses are realizing that going green is good for the bottom line too.
Both businesses have taken a hard look at the environment and have come to the same conclusion. A sound ecological foundation is increasingly necessary for sustaining growth and profitability in the future. In his remarks to his employees Mr. Murdoch said “Reducing our use of energy reduces costs”. One of the examples he highlighted was that just switching the bulbs on their exit signs would reduce carbon emissions by 200 tons equivalent to 200 flights from New York to LA. That’s a lot of energy and a lot of dollars ! And News Corp estimates its global carbon footprint is around 650,000 tons ! From converting to LED lighting in their news centers to replacing lights in their plants, News Corp is looking to reduce energy consumption across the board.
Beyond their immediate impact, Mr. Murdoch realizes the multiplicative impact of his global media empire. He made this very clear in his speech In his words “We can set an example, and we can reach our audiences. Our audience's carbon footprint is 10,000 times bigger than ours...That's the carbon footprint we want to conquer.” A courageous vision !
Wal-Mart is no slouch environmentally either. Its latest foray is just a part of its overall emphasis on sustainability. A major portion of its company website is devoted to sustainability and the environment and the message is coming down from the top.
With 4000 plus stores averaging over 180,000 sq. ft. squeezing energy efficiencies and using renewable energy is as much an economic necessity as an environmental one. When finally implemented, the total solar power of the 22 initial sites will be as much as 20 million kwhr per year. And this is the first step towards their goal of being supplied by 100 percent renewable energy. More importantly, Wal-mart has pulled this off by leveraging its buying power and offloading some of the costs to its suppliers. As reported in Red Herring, the price of electricity generated by the solar systems will be less than what the company currently pays for electricity from the grid because the suppliers will be fronting the capital costs of the solar systems. Always low prices, always!
What are some of the other new business initiatives and models that need to be put in place? Are there emerging technologies that will change the landscape? And will it be soon enough ? Fortunately we have a panel that will help you figure this out at TIECON. On Saturday June 16th, Jeff Andrews from Atlas Ventures will bring together a panel of experts from diverse fields – Solar, Cellulosic Biomass, Electron beams – and probe into the future of Energy. Hope to see you there.
Raj Melville
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Technology and the Quality of Life
On the other side of the globe, Amir Hasson Alexander and his enterprising band of ‘Motomen” are busy bringing the internet to the remotest parts of Asia. Using buses equipped with WiFi, Amir’s company, United Villages (http://www.unitedvillages.com/) , provides web content to computers with no internet connection. A small box, with an antenna, onboard the buses or motorcycles, communicates with the rural computers. Every time a WiFi bus/motorcycle rolls by the village, the web content on the village kiosk computers is updated and email delivered. In remote locations with no wired connections, villagers can communicate – albeit asynchronously – with their cousins in faraway lands, order parts, lodge complaints, or review the status of their claims. With every kiosk Hasson’s company makes the world a little smaller and better place.
We are lucky to have Amir Hasson Alexander as one of the speakers at TIECON, a conference that highlights how breakthrough technology can be used to enable innovative connections and collaboration. We also have Dean Kamen, inventor par excellence, on a panel discussing what’s next in technology.
Dean’s inventions have always been people focused. From his insulin pump, to his IBOT for the physically challenged to the Segway, he has always looked at empowering people with technology.
A few weeks ago, I was at a TIME sponsored conference at Bentley where Dean spoke of two of his other projects. For a while he has been struggling with the fact that over a billion people in the world don’t have access to clean drinking water, and an estimated 1.6 billion don’t have electricity. He put his thinking cap on and now has a couple of devices, each about the size of a washing machine that can provide power and clean water in rural villages. His water purifier makes 1000 liters of clean water a day and his generator runs off virtually any fuel (including cow patties) to generate a kilowatt of power. He is teaming up with Iqbal Quadir - the same Iqbal Quadir who was on our Social Entrepreneurship Panel last year at TIECON and who fathered Grameen Phone - and is testing these devices in Bangladesh.
Whether it is Clean Energy. The next mobile offering or Innovations in personalized medicine, TIECON has always been an event to attend to find out how technology is being put to use to enhance your personal life.
Raj Melville
Women & TiECON
Breaking through more than a thousand-year old tradition, the first female gondolier, Alexandra Hai took the oars in Venice this week – go Alexandra! Off to something else - well not entirely….
It is redundant to ask whether women leaders in all spheres face a different set of challenges. Women form just nine percent of the Boards of Directors at Fortune 500 high-tech companies and a 2006 study published by the University of California, Davis described the "paucity" of women CIOs.
Even though many women business leaders today enjoy their jobs and are able to make a difference, the bigger picture isn’t really rosy. Many still remain unsure about men and women sharing an equal level playing field, being in control of their careers and having their views truly heard and appreciated.
Despite all the underlying skepticism it is still encouraging to see current examples of exceptional women leaders in the world of business, academics and politics. TiECON East is proud to present such strong women including the Managing Director and VP of Strategy at IBM VC, Claudia Fan Munce, former U.S. ambassador and President of Hunt Alternatives Fund, Swanee Hunt and the newly appointed President of Bentley College, Gloria Larson.
Attend TiECON East and hear from them directly about strategy, execution and success - all from their unique leadership perspectives.
Also at TiECON, network and collaborate with other women leaders, entrepreneurs and professionals from across the nation and the globe. Register today at http://www.tieconeast.org/
Going back to Alexandra Hai – when asked if she was bothered by the thought that the other gondoliers might appeal the court ruling allowing her to steer her gondola, she merely quipped: “They can go to the pope!”
Indrani Ray-Ghosal
inmedia Public Relations Inc.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Competing on Analytics
Head over to TiECON East 2007 and listed to Thomas Davenport from Babson, Dr. Rama Ramakrishnan from Oracle and Prof. Ananth Raman from Harvard Business School discuss how analytics goes beyond pattern finding and trending.
Thomas Davenport's latest book, Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning, goes wide and deep into how firms can become analytical competitors, using the power of high-powered analytics to carve out competitive advantages in crowded playing fields.
I am attending the TDWI World Conference this week and am pleased to report that the conversations in this space are moving beyond tech-speak and looking at how Business Intelligence can help drive better business decisions. I find some of the world's leading corporations in attendance to explore how to invest in analytical capabilities that provide deeper insights across their value chain.
Many speakers cite sources that either directly or indirectly reference work done by Thomas Davenport, vendors like Oracle Corp. or practical research and case studies from top B-Schools.
HOWEVER, YOU CAN HEAR DIRECTLY FROM THE SOURCE!
If you care for a conversation that goes beyond metaphorical articulation of goals, semantic sense of strategies, pedantic process principles and other forms of canned construction that promise to meet real world needs, head over to TiECON 2007.
What do *you think* is the future of enterprise-wide analytics & intelligence? Will predictive analytics complement or challenge 'gut-based' decision-making?
Whether you are a startup, small business enterprise, services firm, Fortune 1000 corporation or consultant ... you are bound to find value in exploring and understanding how ANALYTICS MAKES A DIFFERENCE!
I know, I want to look beyond old standbys and hear from thought leaders, provocateurs and practitioners that can help articulate a horizon-vision on where you can go with analytics ... I will be heading over to TiECON East where Davenport, Ramakrishnan and Ananth Raman promise to set the vision on Competing.
Let's hear from the source!
sai @ obviousideas dot com
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Start-up India
Want to know more and meet these featured entrepreneurs in person?
Register TODAY at www.tieconeast.org
Head over to TiECON East 2007 and meet Ganesh Venkatraman, Gururaj "Desh" Deshpande, Al Kapoor, Sean Dalton and others!
sai @ obviousideas dot com
Friday, May 04, 2007
'Time' to innovate, literally!
How do you plan an organizational structure that encourages a culture of innovation, more so, one that can scale with the organization's growth? Set aside a day of the week to 'innovate', hoping that all the creative minds fire up on that day, every week? Let people organically generate ideas and build a mechanism to channelize them? Or, hire people that appear to be innovators and hope that they will strike gold when the sun shines through the open window on a balmy Summer day when the temperature hits 70 Fahrenheit?!
What have *you* have done to encourage innovation in companies 'n teams that you have funded and led? Tell us *your* story!
Google encourages its employees to spend 20% of their time on ideas and projects that are not necessarily tied to their jobs or job descriptions.
IBM has 'Think Fridays', when employees are encouraged to focus on innovative work, by freeing up their time to play with new technology.
Of course, the stories of innovation at 3M are legendary. The Post-It story, of course, being the most famous of them all, although the role of 'luck' is not cited as much. Check out Ralph Katz's book to know more. Want to know where to find it? Come to TiECON East 2007 and ask for .... Obviously. I will tell you, obviously, where to find the real story behind Post-It. What you read might shock you!!
Back to IBM, Google and ... Microsoft. Want to see Ram Shriram, Member of Google's Board in action? Want to hear Claudia Fan Munce, VP Strategy, IBM VC? Or, Don Dodge, Director of Business Development at Microsoft's Emerging Business Team?
You cant do that sitting at your desk or Googling for 'innovative ideas' during your innovation-hours at work :O!
Show up at TiECON East 2007, the LARGEST GLOBAL INNOVATION CONFERENCE and walk away with nuggets of ideas and insights that you can use to make a difference!
sai @ obviousideas dot com
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Bloodless coups on the info superhighway!
Digg.com's critical mass of devoted 'diggers' decided to revolt against the Website for deciding to comply with digital rights management interests and pulling down users' posts with code that would enable access to copyrighted HD-DVD material. The world of 'Web 2.0' customers ended up deciding that they had the right to have access to stories, regardless of which side of the law they lay!
This unprecedented display of power is at once both a testemant to the power of democracy and the unintended effects of unfettered 'people's wishes'. It highlights a very real legal (and almost ethical) question whether populist people's choices can overrule the letter of the law.
This issue is not about the spirit of the law or esoteric debates on the many shades of jurisprudence that might be open to interpretation. Users were, simply put, handing out free keys to the bank's vault ... and daring and defying the law to restrain their power.
Whew! Web2.0 ...
- Is the customer always right? Should Digg.com have bowed under pressure and reversed its initial decision to take down messages with the 'crack code'?
- Do such mass-populace community-based Web presences have any sort of sustainable advantage in the face of a fickle mass (one that finds solace in a collective anonymity that affords it the ability to flout the law)?
- Is this a mere communication of 'a sequence of numbers and letters', protected under the First Amendment? (since there was no actual delivery of hacking software or decryption tool)
- Or, is this collective voice of the community actually a clarion call to rethink how current laws are written?
Are these users time-travellers helping define the future by defying the present?
What do you think? Is Web2.0 too hot to handle?
sai @ obviousideas dot com
Innovation ... the real deal is here
I could tell you how TiECON is an experience that is not to be missed! But unless you head over to http://www.tieconeast.org/home.html, register and show up ... you wont know what its all about.
So, why sit back and 'think about it' or 'try to decide if TiECON is for you'. Innovation and change is happening 24x7 across the world.
Catch a big chunk of it at the LARGEST GLOBAL INNOVATION CONFERENCE! Period.
In the meanwhile, keep coming back to this blog to keep the conversation going...
And, by the way, I shall sign of as, obviously ... because, obviously, we will be meeting soon @ TiECON East 2007!
Until then, sai @ obviousideas dot com