Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Playing the Cleantech roulette (contd.)

Playing the Cleantech roulette

If you want an insight into the investment thesis of the current Cleantech venture investors, I recommend the following quote from a leading investor:

"There are many such things going on that are radical, implausible - each individually (is) somewhat implausible, on the aggregate (it is) highly plausible that one plan will work. That's the key to the solution."
- Vinod Khosla

Here is a commonsense translation. "I know that my investment look, and is, funny to you. But hold your breath. From this mass of chaos, an intelligent plan will emerge. I cannot tell which investments will make money, but somebody somewhere will be alright. Take my word."

This comes from a thought leader of the industry. Where he goes, others rush in. Not surprisingly, smart people are questioning if the current investment approaches are working. We have already lived through damaging hype cycles in fuel cell and ethanol, and now working through disasters in solar and algae. When do we stop and say? "Enough carnage. Let's rethink what we are doing and explore if there are sensible alternatives to investing in the Cleantech sector."

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

SIGs at TiE

Did you know that TiE-Boston has numerous Special Interest Groups that cater to a wide variety of interests... ranging from vertically oriented ones like software and services, capital markets and finance, life sciences and healthcare, social enterprise, broadband, clean energy, wireless technology to horizontal ones like business case & communication, women's initiative, young entrepreneurs, and small & medium businesses.

Thats a wide spectrum of economic activity. So, head on over to TiE Boston and pick a SIG that works for you!

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Its a wrap!!!!

After two and a half days power packed days, like all good things, TiECON East 07 came to an end. The day started with a thought-provoking keynote on "Global Innovation: Whats next?" ... to be followed by an absolutely expansive and deep discussion on the current Energy crisis and opportunity. The three tracks, Technology, Health and Enterprise each had panel discussions that packed their respective rooms with standing room attendees ... and provided perfect momentum towards the last event of the day where Boston's own stars from the entrepreneurial sky cast their glance upon the audience, reminding us about their journeys, regaling us with their stories while remaining strong and resolute in their belief about the potential and possibilities that arise out of entpreneurship!

If you did miss TiECON East 2007, come back to the fold next year. "Why?", you might ask, considering that the Boston local scene has quite a few events around the year... well, here's some food for thought ... they are all comments by CEO's, founders, executives and financiers I polled during the event...

"In 2 days, I tripled by 'rolodex' in quantity and quality"
"I am amazed by how open people are to my ideas and what my company offers"
"For a moment, I forgot that I was speaking with someone worth half a billion dollars... he made me feel so much at ease"
"I thought TiE was about Indian entrepreneurs alone... you have a veritable United Nations out here"
"Unlike trade shows that are vertically aligned, the cross section of folks that come here is unique and there is something for everyone"

"I am just amazed... I just saw a deal being struck right before my eyes"

Join us, be part of the action. TiECON East 2008 is closer than you think!

sai at obviousideas dot com

Friday, June 15, 2007

Day 2 at TiECON

What a packed day ... with engaging panels ... and almost a 100+ people at each session in across 3 concurrent tracks ... there was active networking throughout the day ... and a lot of star studded presence ... with Senator John Kerry dropping in ... Ram Shriram from Google giving a rare interview to Tom Asbhrook of NPR 'On Point' fame ... and of course, a classy banquet dinner to boot! If you missed Day 2, it is not too late. Head over to Day 3 ... and see TiE tackle some unique topics like 'Karma Capitalism' and 'Building the 21st Century Company'...

TiECON East 2007 and beyond... be there.

sai at obviousideas dot com

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Conference Opens

It is 8 PM and the conference was officially opened by Vinit Nijhawan, Raj Alur welcomes us all and Al Kapoor has got us started by introducing the speakers for tonight. Mike Grandinetti from MIT Sloan School has formally set the tone for the evening, introducing Rod Randall, Senior Managing Director at Vesbridge and the key note speaker, Reed Hunt, Board Member Intel.

LIVE FROM TiECON EAST

It is 6:30 PM now and TiECON East 2007 is alive and kicking!!!!

PowerPitches is underway... where entrepreneurs are going to take 2 minutes to talk about their companies and services.

Keep checking back in over the next 3 days to get live real time updates! Of course, head over here to the Hynes Convention Center and take it in all "LIVE"!

I will be updating the comments section constantly with live updates...

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

The New Silk Road

Sometimes one wonders where the new Silk Road starts and ends. Does the global commerce caravan travel through China as an agent for cost-effective production, or, is China the principal player to whose tunes the world unwittingly dances?

How did China feature in the US Senate TODAY?

If you care about this dialog, deepen the discussion THIS SATURDAY ... come listen to Tarun Khanna, the Jorge Paulo Lemann Professor at Harvard Business School deliver the lunch keynote on Saturday June 16th. Here is your chance to figure it out in his keynote titled "Billions of entrepreneurs: How China and India are Reshaping their Futures and Yours"

The once 'far away Communist country' has now emerged as an economic powerhouse with vast influence in commodity, capital and currency markets (amongst others). It is a country that sees big green while retaining its deep red core.

With huge trade surpluses and an appetite for foreign investments in discrete sectors, China seems to have found a way to successfully retain its communist core while nurturing various layers of creative and compelling capitalism around it. With a slow, almost studied approach to transforming its economy, it has deeply integrated itself into the global marketplace without breaking down like the Eastern European countries and former USSR. All along, it has also managed to empower its vast human resources to become hyper-efficient agents of commerce without the promise of a commensurate reward system that capitalism offers.

Are you ready to be part of the new bandwagon of economic growth that winds its way through this ancient land in warp-speed? Do you think the 2008 Beijing Olympics will mark a milestone for global attention and further growth?

Or, do you feel that this growth will be tempered by recent U.S. moves to influence the Chinese to revalue their currency? Some estimate that the Chinese Yuan is 40% devalued allowing it to flood other countries' markets with super-cheap products, hence enjoying an unfair trade advantage.

Allright, enough of this e-dialog... show up at TiECON East, meet a few leading thinkers and practitioners and engage in a healthy mind-meld on where the Chinese economy is headed. Be part of the action. Or, become a part of forgotten history because you did not visit http://www.tieconeast.org/ and jump on the caravan!

sai at obviousideas dot com

Innovative Models for Social Change

A recent Op Ed piece in the Boston Globe had the intriguing title “Too Many Do-Gooders ?” The gist of the article was that as the number of “well-intentioned, not-for-profit agencies” were growing, the number of corporate donors were declining. All this happening while the need for services has never been greater. An adjacent Op Ed article titled “Big Brothers vs. Big Sister” highlighted the issue by describing the competition for dollars among the two sibling organizations.

The authors, Kevin Phelan from Meredith & Grew and Chad Gifford of Bank of America via FleetBoston, are well known in the community for their philanthropic support and so their observations carry credibility and weight. The authors contend that by spreading limited support around piecemeal, it propagates duplicative services, resulting in inefficiencies and a senseless competition for dollars. They appeal for a new solution, a new paradigm to address this issue.

Fortunately the world of philanthropy has also been evolving. Organizations like New Profit calling themselves a “Venture Philanthropy Fund” focus on providing long term strategic and financial support to evolving social entrepreneurs. By pooling philanthropic resources, grantees are assured that their ‘investments’ result in high-quality, scalable organizations. Others, like Ashoka invest in emerging social entrepreneurs, serving as early stage seed capital in VC-speak, leverage their multi-hundred ‘company portfolio’ to propagate common learnings among its ‘social investments’ and invest in building and spreading common infrastructure across social entrepreneurs. Calling themselves a non-profit venture fund, The Acumen Fund uses a rigorous process for selecting and investing in socially driven enterprises and measures their portfolio companies in financial and social terms.

Will these new approaches to supporting emerging social entrepreneurs help address the issues raised by Messrs Phelan and Gifford? How does one balance the needs of the many with a focus on a few successful social innovators?

At TIECON EAST, we are fortunate to have a distinguished panel that consists of representatives from Ashoka, New Profit, The Acumen Fund and the Hunt Alternatives Fund that will help you cut through the clutter and hear first hand from these innovative, cutting edge philanthropists. Join us for a session on “Innovating for Social Impact” on Friday from 2: 45 to 03:45 PM.

Raj Melville

Building The Next Billion Dollar Company in Massachusetts

I'm participating in a panel this weekend at the TiE conference on the challenge in Massachusetts of building the next "billion dollar company". It's an interesting and timely topic, to say the least.

We seem to have an inferiority complex in Massachusetts on many dimensions beyond the historical trials and tribulations of our beloved Red Sox. We stand in the shadow of New York City as a financial center, despite having a few strong private equity firms and hedge funds located in the Bay State, such as Bain Capital, Highfields and The Baupost Group. And we are a distance second to California in attracting job-creating venture capital, with $13 billion invested into 1,495 start-ups based in “The Golden State” as compared to $3 billion in 380 Massachusetts start-ups in 2006. It’s not too shabby to be in second place to New York and California, considering we are only America’s 13th largest state as measured by population, but who wants to settle for second place? With our mix of world-class academic institutions, hospitals, venture capital and technical talent, one would think we would have the potential to generate even more industrial horsepower. Our performance in creating industrial leaders is particularly discouraging, as we have produced a mere 10 of the country’s Fortune 500 companies that call Massachusetts their home state. Why haven’t we been able to create more billion dollar companies as opposed to numerous minnows that get gobbled up by the bigger fish out of state?

To analyze the situation, it is helpful to look at a few historical case studies of successful companies that have indeed broken out. Two oft-cited role models who have “made it” are EMC and Boston Scientific.

EMC is arguably the kingpin of the Massachusetts information technology scene. Founded in 1979, the company has achieved enormous success in the information storage market, with a market capitalization of $33 billion, 2006 revenue of over $11 billion and 26,500 employees. Boston Scientific holds a similarly exalted position in the medical technology market. Also founded in 1979, the company’s success in medical devices has led to its growth to a market capitalization of $24 billion, 2006 revenue of $8 billion and 28,600 employees.

What do these two homegrown industrial titans have in common? One interesting observation: EMC and Boston Scientific were not classically venture-backed companies. In both cases, the founders controlled the company through the IPO and had the fortitude to persevere throughout the early lean, start-up years without succumbing to the temptation to sell too early. Patience in both companies on the part of investors and the entrepreneurs was a virtue. EMC had its IPO in 1986 and hit $1 billion in sales in 1994, 7 and 15 years after its founding, respectively. Boston Scientific had its IPO in 1992 and hit $1 billion in sales in 1995, 13 and 16 years after its founding, respectively. In a nod to Jim Collins’ book “Good to Great”, where he cites the importance of steady, consistent leadership, it is worth noting that the two founding leaders, Richard Egan and John Abele, were in their positions for 13 and 17 years, respectively. Another common attribute is that once they had achieved a strong position in their initial core market, both companies made bold acquisitions to maintain leadership and market supremacy: EMC in the case of Data General and then numerous software companies, such as VMWare; Boston Scientific in the case of Guidant and numerous smaller device companies. In other words, the two companies did not rest on their laurels but instead took risks and aggressively sought to broaden their reach.

What are some of the inhibitors to replicating these two local success stories? Beyond the lessons cited above, we would also observe that there are subtle differences in the way Massachusetts entrepreneurs and investors approach company-building as compared to our peer elsewhere. Massachusetts entrepreneurs and investors prefer to push for early exits, exhibiting a predilection for taking their chips off the table early. To be clear, none of us are beyond reproach here. Beyond cultural conservatism, another driver of this behavior is the shallow pool of local senior management talent. When Massachusetts boards consider selling or holding on, one of the key questions they ask themselves is, “Does my current management team have the horsepower to take the company to $1 billion in sales?”. In the absence of having numerous strong training grounds for executives to learn how to run operating units greater than $100 million, the answer is too often no. You can’t swing a dead cat in Silicon Valley without hitting a high-tech executive with experience at an operating scale of greater than $100 million, but in Massachusetts there is a depressing dearth of such talent.

With the quality of our talent pool and the caliber of our business and political leadership, it’s not all doom and gloom. With home-grown powerhouses like Genzyme and Biogen leading the way, our position as a biotechnology cluster appears to have strengthened recently and we are increasingly attracting out-of-state employers who want to tap into the world-class scientific talent residing here. There are early signs of hope that we are well-positioned to lead in the nascent but potentially robust Green industry, with companies like Evergreen Solar and EnerNOC leading the way. And one of our most promising information technology “up-and-comers”, Akamai, appears poised to achieve the magic $1 billion in sales in the next two to three years, dominating the Web content distribution market.

I am hopeful that we are on a stronger path in Massachusetts than ever before, so long as we have the continued leadership of the business, financial and political community to show the way.

Monday, June 04, 2007

Musings on the globalization of talent

Submitted by Vinit Nijhawan--Entrepreneur & Venture Capitalist

It is astonishing how fast salaries for the top of the pyramid are becoming equal around the world. A software manager in Bangalore makes about the same in dollars as one in Boston. Venture capital and private equity firms in India and the US are offering unheard of salaries to McKinsey and Goldman associates. MBA graduates of the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad are commanding starting salaries that are similar to Harvard Business School graduates. Experienced technology startup CEOs are in short supply everywhere.

Entrepreneurs and startup CXOs have global opportunities formerly available only at multi-national companies. Having dual residency in Boston and Bangalore is the stamp of a globally arrived executive!

TieCon East in Boston will be the gathering place for these global startup executives in mid-June. This is an opportunity for New England entrepreneurs, financiers and corporate executives to connect into this global talent pool.

Tom Ashbrook, the host of the popular NPR radio show On Point will be moderating the banquet keynote panel with Ram Shriram, Google Founding board member. Tom himself has a global background: raised on an Illinois farm, attended Yale University and worked as a surveyor and dynamiter in Alaska's oil fields before becoming a foreign correspondent. He spent ten years in Asia, jumping between India, Hong Kong, and Tokyo. At The Boston Globe, he served as deputy managing editor until 1996, during which time he directed coverage of the end of the Cold War and the Gulf War.

Perhaps Ram will give us a peek at the upcoming Google mobile phone (see my blog entry on the Google phone: http://entremeister.typepad.com/vinit_nijhawan/ ). Or perhaps Tom can tease out from Ram how Google will topple Microsoft's reign with Office. Google is rapidly expanding around the globe to tap talent, with its Boston presence growing in leaps.

Looking forward to meeting you at the Global talent bazaar also known as TieCON East!

Vinit Nijhawan
www.nijhawan.com

Who will YOU meet at TiECON East 2007?

<= 10 days to go
>= 100 speakers
2+ days of insightful + incisive + engaging discussions
What's your equation for success?
Who will you meet at TiECON East 2007?
Make the TiE network yours

Share a thought, spare a moment, spend a minute ... blog your pre-conference, and post-conference thoughts at http://tieboston.blogspot.com/

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Venture-backed Companies Line up their IPOs

I still see too many entrepreneurs who believe that the U.S. capital markets will never again roll red carpet for venture-backed technology companies. Guess what? Markets have always been cyclical and things are turning around, particularly for the venture-backed technology companies. Witness the recent filings of New England companies founded by TiECon members including Airvana, BladeLogic, Netezza, Virtusa, and Starent.

Venture-backed technology IPOs came back in vogue in the latter half of 2006 and produced good market returns (difference in the first-day closing and the offering price,) signaling that the public is showing more appetite for technology companies than before. As a group, technology IPOs posted a very impressive 37% average return from the offer price. Notable tech IPOs this year include Mellanox (Infiniband interconnect, rev. $44M,) Clearwire (WiMax network, rev. $95M,) Sourcefire (network protection, revenue $41M,) Salary.com (rev. $17M,) BigBand Networks (video network, rev. $140M,) Glu Mobile (games for handsets, rev. $39M,) Comverge (power management, rev. $24M,) EnerNOC (power response management, rev. $23M,) and Aruba Networks (enterprise wireless, rev. $73M.)

Revival of the Capital Markets: The capital markets have been on a bullish streak. The Dow Jones index surpassed its previous peak reached in 2000 late last year while S&P 500 is almost back to its closing record of 1,527 of March 2000. But the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks and lost the most of any major index in the bear market, would have to nearly double to return to its old record of 5,048 of March 2000 - a sign that the technology investors are optimistic and rational, not overzealous and speculative.

The IPO market experienced the best first quarter since 2000 in terms of volume and proceeds. Overall, IPO offer amounts by venture-backed companies dropped to about $2B in 2002 and then slowly climbed back to $5.2B last year. We expect that this year will be a particularly strong year, easily outpacing the amount raised last year. The total number of Nasdaq IPOs for the first quarter, 42, was the most since the same period seven years ago.

Healthcare and IT: 2006 was a good year for the healthcare sector. However, most of these listings were priced below their ranges. Technology and telecom companies accounted for about 22% of the IPOs and produced good market returns. Riverbed Technologies, a WAN optimization vendor, was the top performing IPO, producing 215% return. Other solid performers included Ominture (web analytics,) Isilon (clustered storage systems,) Techwell (fabless IC designer,) and Synchronoss (VoIP software.)

Alternative Energy IPOs: Solar Shines
As the buzz surrounding solar investments peaked, a quartet of solar power products manufacturers raised $822 million in proceeds. The notables included Canadian Solar (+35%), Trina Solar (+2%) and Solarfun Power (-20%) that pitched China-based operations. First Solar (+39%) is very active in Germany, the second largest solar market in the world.

While Ethanol Runs Out of Fuel: Used as a fuel additive since the 1930’s, ethanol’s recent rise to prominence has been fueled by a favorable regulatory environment and the phase-out of competing fuel additive MTBE. While market conditions appeared ripe, investors were concerned about long-term viability. After strong initial trading, VeraSun and Aventine both plummeted amid concerns over narrowing ethanol spreads. Similar concerns led Hawkeye Holdings to pull its planned IPO in November and forced U.S. BioEnergy to price its offering at a -13% discount, according to IPOHome.

VC Firms optimistic: The venture firms in Boston and Silicon Valley have a clear sense that this is a very viable market for technology companies. 2007 should be a big year for venture-funded tech companies. I expect VC-backed technology and internet-based companies to continue their IPO revival in 2007 as many companies that got off the ground in the aftermath of the tech meltdown are now maturing. Proposed changes loosening the burden of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) should also entice more technology IPOs where such costs can take a large bite out of their profit margins before their business models reach full scale. We do see segments of the technology sector strengthening their presence in the IPO pipeline on a sustained basis. These include cleantech, mobility, and multimedia applications and infrastructure.

How do you view the future of venture-backed technology companies in the U.S.?

Friday, May 25, 2007

Necessity, the mother of invention?

Is necessity truly the mother of invention? Or, do we invent needs?

Today, Sony announced a breakthrough in TV technology, with a working model of a flat-screen, thin full-color screen that bends like a piece of paper! It has been reported that Sony is yet to decide how it will commercialize this innovation. A wearable TV-fabric and wrist-wrap TV are amongst some early application ideas being bounced about. One thing can be certain, once Sony invents a need, the anticipated customer demand will accelerate the creation of complementing products and programming to piggy back on this technology.

For all the technical innovation in broadcasting technology supported by FCC mandates on High Definition transmission, the form factor of current display unit limits where and how one can enjoy the medium and the message. Plasma TVs are bulky and fragile, while LCDs have viewing angle limitations. We end up getting these newer generation TV's and hosting them in a 19th century fashion, rooted to a spot around which we congregate; rather than having the flexibility of letting the TV follow us to where we want to 'enjoy' it.

Ideal application? Thin-screen large TVs that weigh no more than 5 pounds, wall mountable on simple picture-frame mounts, with user-swappable designer frames with fully-integrated HD antennas, wireless connectivity with peripheral AV equipment and powered by rechargeable batteries that can be swapped out. Further, imagine if TV's became as portable as laptops and reach the level of personalization that we are used to with computing technology. We might take to switching TV sets out as fast as we switch the channels on the flipper!

That, indeed, would be a need invented.

Of course, when you head over to TiECON East 2007, you will get to hear about The War for the Digital Home with Rod Randall (Partner, Vesbridge Partners), Nandhu Nandhakumar (SVP, LG Electronics), Jeff Binder (Senior Director, Motorola), Gunjan Bhow (VP, Marketing & Product Mgt, Actiontec Electronics), Ofer Vilenski (CEO, Jung Software) and Brian Mahony (VP, Marketing, Espial) sharing their thoughts on Saturday June 16th.

The conference starts at 6 PM on Thursday, June 14 at the Hynes Convention Center with Reed Hunt, Intel Board Member / Former FCC Chairman / Author kicking off the event.

Can you afford to miss this and spend the next 365 days until the next TiECON fretting over it?

sai at obviousideas dot com

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Vroooomm – are we Ready for the Electric Muscle Car ?

Take a look at this video. It is really cool – if you blink you might miss the motorbike disappearing in a puff of smoke in the distance going 155 mph on the straightaway at the Firebird Speedway in Arizona.


Well that would not be that earth shattering if it weren’t for the fact that this motorbike was running on electricity. Electricity off of 990 Li-ion cells from A123 Systems delivering over 350 HP !! According to KillaCycle’s website, they can recharge the 161 pounds of batteries in a few minutes between runs using less than 10 cents of electricity.

Well you won’t see the KillaCycle but you do have a chance to hear David Vieau, CEO of A123 Systems speak at TIECON on June 15th and tell you all about where the next generation of battery technology, that powers these vehicles, is going.

Fast electric vehicles are not just for extreme hobbyists. The Tesla, unveiled earlier this year, promises to bring a high end, high performance electric vehicle to market in the next year. With a price tag north of 90,000 dollars, they have sold over 350 cars even before the first production model hits the streets. And speaking of hitting the streets, this baby can go from 0 to 60 in 4 seconds flat.



And if that was not enough, how about a battle of the supercars ! Here is a prototype electric car, the X-1 from Wrightspeed that takes on a Ferrari and a Porsche and leaves them in the dust.



If speed is what turns you on, there is even a site for Drag racing Electrics - http://nedra.com/ You can see more of these electric rockets there.

If you want to find out what’s next with state of the art energy and electric technology, then TIECON EAST in Boston is the place to be. Hope we see you there.

Raj Melville